Why Smith Rowe's Arsenal exit makes tactical sense - and joining Fulham does too (2024)

On an overcast Sunday at the Emirates Stadium late in the 2020-21 season, Emile Smith Rowe picked up a pass on Arsenal’s left wing.

He laid it off for Dani Ceballos and drifted in towards the opposition penalty area. Ceballos found Willian, who had moved out left. Willian slipped in underlapping left-back Bukayo Saka, whose cross was volleyed home from just a few yards out by Smith Rowe to open the scoring in a 3-1 win that confirmed relegation for visitors West Bromwich Albion.

Restrictions on crowds gathering in place at that time to try to limit the spread of Covid-19 meant no fans were there to watch that well-crafted goal — Smith Rowe’s first in the Premier League. No biggie, though, as once they were let back in at the start of the following season, they would watch Smith Rowe repeatedly drift in from the Arsenal left or pop up in dangerous areas on his way to 10 league goals in 2021-22.

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What is likely to be his final Arsenal goal was the last of those 10 in a 4-2 away win against Chelsea that April — he arrived late to cushion home a right-footed finish from the edge of the box. He was set up by Martin Odegaard, who had been found by Saka.

Cut to the present day, and Smith Rowe is on the brink of leaving Saka, Odegaard and company behind to potentially replace his former team-mate Willian across London at Fulham in a £35million deal. It would match Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain’s 2017 move to Liverpool as Arsenal’s biggest incoming transfer fee.

The two years and change since he scored his most recent senior goal that Wednesday night at Stamford Bridge have seen Smith Rowe’s career stall. Injuries have played their part, but there are important tactical underpinnings to the situation as well.

Arsenal’s rise over the past two seasons has been significant. Their fifth-placed Premier League finish in that 2021-22 campaign, with 61 goals scored, seems a long time ago, given they’ve finished as the closest challengers to champions Manchester City in both years since, scoring 179 times — averaging 89.5 per league season.

On the evidence of 2021-22, Smith Rowe will have been widely expected to be among the players regularly contributing if you’d told someone Arsenal would score 179 times in the Premier League over the next two years. He had stood out with his ball-carrying, his technical ability with both feet and the general excitement he brought to Arsenal’s football as manager Mikel Arteta established his tactical foundations in his second full season in charge.

This reception, body feint and turn in a 1-0 home win against Watford in November 2021 is one example of his skill set.

However, Arsenal’s rapid evolution from challenging for a top-four finish to being title contenders again brought issues for Smith Rowe. Granted, the groin surgery of 2022-23 and knee injury last season didn’t help his case, but even when fit, he played in only 50 per cent of the 68 games where he made the matchday squad.

While there may have been doubts over Smith Rowe’s physical capacity, Arsenal’s tactical shift is a key contributor.

Arteta moved away from the 4-2-3-1 he used to varying levels of success in 2021-22 to a more Manchester City-esque 4-3-3 the following season.

Oleksandr Zinchenko, signed from City that summer, was used as an inverted full-back, and Kieran Tierney’s overlapping runs from left-back in the previous season largely disappeared. Gabriel Martinelli’s emergence as a one-v-one threat with the ability to stretch defences made him first-choice on Arsenal’s left wing and he enjoyed a prolific season, scoring 15 times in the league.

Both of these developments meant Smith Rowe, who had thrived as a left-sided forward drifting into half-spaces and causing damage with his link-up play alongside an overlapping left-back, was regularly benched.

Though Smith Rowe thrived as a drifter, he also had the pace and dribbling ability to hurt opposition full-backs; he had a 60 per cent success rate on 2.5 take-ons per 90 in the league in 2021-22, which was higher than the likes of Jarrod Bowen, Son Heung-min and Pedro Neto. One example of this came against Leicester City:

The move shown above ended with him sending in a poor cross, but it showed Smith Rowe’s ability to take players on, which was valuable in Arteta’s new style of play. Fans rarely got to see this sort of stuff from him after this, however, as that groin injury seemingly robbed him of time in training to learn the system better.

With his position as a left-winger in jeopardy, the alternate route for Smith Rowe to make an impression was as a central midfielder. Granit Xhaka, however, became a reliable left-sided No 8 alongside Odegaard in 2022-23 due to his engine and defensive prowess, aspects of the game Smith Rowe has never been known for. Xhaka left Arsenal last summer, but Kai Havertz and Declan Rice arrived, with the latter eventually making the position his own.

Smith Rowe was given a chance in that position against Sheffield United in the October of last season. His performance at Bramall Lane was promising; he assisted the final goal of Eddie Nketiah’s hat-trick, completing 25 of 31 passes (including four progressive passes) and recording four shot-creating actions (SCAs), two goal-creating actions, a tackle, a blocked shot and an interception. It wasn’t always brilliant and title-contenders Arsenal were playing what proved to be the worst team in the league, but there seemed to be something to build on.

Unfortunately, Smith Rowe didn’t get to build on anything — a knee injury suffered in that game kept him on the sidelines for the next six weeks.

When he returned in mid-December, Arsenal had as settled a side as they have had in the last half a decade, and Smith Rowe didn’t start again until the January 30 meeting with Nottingham Forest. In 70 minutes at the City Ground, he made a tackle, had two progressive carries and completed 42 of his 45 passes but, for his second start in a row, recorded no successful take-ons and put no shots on target.

What looks like being Smith Rowe’s final Arsenal start — at home against Luton Town in April — was arguably his best in that position. He had more touches (53) than in his previous two starts, got a shot on target and recorded five progressive passes (and completed 40 of 45 pass attempts overall) with five SCAs, two interceptions and a tackle.

The encouraging display was under a cloud, however; the die had already been cast.

A potential move to Fulham, as reported by The Athletic earlier this week, should bring renewed optimism for Smith Rowe.

Coach Marco Silva has largely used a 4-2-3-1 in recent years with a left-winger, Willian, who cuts inside and a left-back, Antonee Robinson, who overlaps at pace. And as we’ve laid out above, Smith Rowe thrived in that system two seasons ago. His positioning and finishing can be expected to help Fulham offensively after a 35-year-old Willian scored just two open-play goals in his 31 appearances in the 2023-24 Premier League.

Thanks to his skill set, Smith Rowe might be able to create more openings for himself with the help of overlaps, as he does here in a February 2022 win against Brentford:

A comparison of Smith Rowe’s chance-creation map from that season and Willian’s from 2023-24 shows interesting similarities and differences.

Smith Rowe’s positional versatility, as seen above, will be another welcome addition for the west Londoners.

Last season, Fulham’s midfield featured some interesting in-game rotations: Andreas Pereira in central attacking midfield would drop deep to help progress play, while one of their holding players would venture slightly ahead. In this clip against Brentford, we see how Pereira, holder Sasa Lukic, right-winger Alex Iwobi and initially, Willian, rotate, with only Joao Palhinha staying deep from the start.

Smith Rowe’s ability to play off the left or down the middle allows for similar rotations. His deceptive speed, ability to take players on and underrated two-footedness also mean he can drift out to the right in late-game situations.

However, there are questions over his defensive ability, and rightly so as Silva’s system demands defensive engagements all over the pitch.

The counterargument is that Willian averaged only 0.8 tackles (61 per cent successful), 0.4 interceptions and 4.3 recoveries per 90 in the league last season. Smith Rowe put up similar numbers to those in the 2021-22 Premier League (0.7 tackles at a 50 per cent success rate, 0.7 interceptions and 4.9 recoveries), and at 23 offers more mobility than the Brazilian, who turns 36 on August 9.

With Palhinha gone, to Bayern Munich, there may be an increased impetus on Fulham’s players collectively making up for his absence.

A significant portion of the initial €51million (£43.3m/$55.4m) received for Palhinha is being spent on Smith Rowe, who would likely need to contribute defensively even if Fulham sign another combative midfielder in this window. Whether he will be able to, and his match fitness, are both question marks after two difficult seasons.

Overall, though, there is a tactical fit here that makes sense, and it’s up to Smith Rowe to make up for lost time.

(Photo: Marc Atkins/Getty Images)

Anantaajith Raghuraman (or Ananth) is a tactics and data writer covering transfers. He covered Indian football for Sportskeeda and analysed teams from numerous European leagues outside of the top five for Total Football Analysis prior to joining The Athletic. He is currently based in London. Follow Anantaajith on Twitter @anantaajith