Rebuilding herds a prime topic at Beef Cattle Short Course (2024)

Over 1,850 cattle producers are at Texas A&M University this week for the 70th annual Beef Cattle Short Course to hear about the hottest issues in the cattle industry and an outlook of the future.

One focus on this year’s event: what goes into rebuilding a cattle herd in the current conditions.

Drought and extreme temperatures over the last two years caused ranchers to cull down their herds and even led some to be completely dispersed because it was too expensive to feed their livestock. In January, cattle numbers in the United States reached an almost 75-year record low. Meanwhile, prices have reached record highs. Plentiful rain and green grass from spring and summer rains have bred optimism in the agriculture business, though.

Jason Cleere, event coordinator and AgriLife Extension statewide beef cattle specialist in A&M’s Department of Animal Science, said there’s interest from producers in building back herds.

“The ranchers, as I go out and I talk to groups and visit with others, they’re interested in it and we’re going to start seeing producers either retain their own replacement females that they’ve raised or start purchasing them,” Cleere said.

Although expanding herds is a central topic of discussion, Randy Blach of Cattle Fax said it’s plain and simple when he looks at the cattle number situation: there’s not expansion yet. He said while some areas of the country are going through regional expansion, the industry isn’t growing.

“We’ve seen a significant drop in beef cattle slaughter, we’ve seen a significant drop in dairy cattle slaughter this year, but our estimate right now is that beef cattle numbers will still be 200,000 head smaller on Jan. 1, 2025,” Blach said. “That will likely be the low of cattle numbers, but it’s not changing very fast. At the current rate of expansion, that number is going to still be very low in 2026 and probably into 2027.”

When the beef cattle inventory previously bottomed out around 2014, there was a quick rise in cattle numbers. David Anderson, an A&M AgriLife Extension economist, said this time around there are several reasons to believe expansion will be slower, including higher costs and interest rates. Blach said national figures show there are not as many replacement heifers available right now, which contributes to a slower projected expansion phase.

“So far, we have very little evidence of any expansion,” Anderson said. “The longer that lasts with very little evidence of expansion, that means higher prices like we see now last longer because we delay expansion, we delay increasing production.”

When looking at the prospect of expansion, Anderson said replacement heifers will likely be the most expensive ever. The last time the industry collectively expanded, many producers spent good money on replacement females.

“It’s kind of like if you need a work truck to do this amount of work on the ranch, do you buy a Mercedes? Is a Mercedes necessary and you spend three times the money? No. This is what you’re going to pay for a replacement female, so that’s the thing we want them to take away. What can we afford to pay for these and make sure that you remain profitable over the next 5-10 years,” Cleere said.

Ron Gill, AgriLife Extension livestock specialist, said there are potentially 16 options for replacements and another list of things to consider for each option, including economics, genetics and management.

Some factors to consider, Gill said, include quantity and quality, initial investment cost, the development phase, rebreeding potential, marketing flexibility, genetic potential, weaning weight, nutritional requirements and the risk of culling early or calf or cow death loss. Gill also said ranchers should build flexibility into their beef system to prevent forced management.

“There’s going to be a lot things come into play the next few months and year that we need to work through on buying replacement females,” Gill said.